变化环境下干旱事件演变驱动机制研究进展  

Research Progress of Driving Mechanism of Drought Events Evolution in Changing Environment

作　　者：马海娇[1,2] 杨志勇[2] 韩宇平[1] 翁白莎[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电学院水利学院,河南郑州450011 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第11期5-8,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)基金资助项目(2010CB951102);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2012BAC19B03)

摘　　要：随着气候变化异常和人类活动的日益加剧,干旱事件呈现广发、频发、并发的态势,给社会带来重大损失,为有效应对变化环境下的干旱问题,系统梳理了变化环境下干旱事情演变驱动机制研究进展。干旱事情演变驱动机制研究过程大致分为两个阶段,第一阶段为初期发展阶段(20世纪80年代初到21世纪初),主要研究单一驱动因子,多应用统计分析方法;第二阶段为发展阶段(21世纪初至今),对干旱事件演变的驱动机制分析逐渐深入,考虑了气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,但大多只是定性分析。目前干旱事件演变驱动机制研究尚处于起步阶段,研究成果尚不够系统深入,未来需提出干旱事件演变的归因识别方法,加强干旱事件演变的驱动机制分析。With abnormal climate change and increased human activities, drought events occur widely, frequently and simultaneously, and bring the heavy loss. Coping with drought events has become a focused problem in every field. Un- derstanding driving mechanism of drought events evolution is necessary for dealing with drought effectively. The research of driving mechanism of drought events began in the 1980s, and its development process is divided into two stages broad ly. The first one is the early development stage （from early 1980s to early 2000s）, mainly studying single driving factor and using the statistical analysis methods mostly. The second one is development stage （from early 2000s until now）, an- alyzing the driving mechanism of drought events gradually, and considering the influence of both climate change and hu- man activities, but only making qualitative analysis. This research is still in its early stage, whose results are not system- ic and thorough enough. Driving mechanism analysis should be strengthened and propose attribution and recognition method of drought events evolution in the future.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 干旱事件 驱动机制 

分 类 号：P462.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]