基于标准化降水指数的蚌埠市近45年旱涝特征  

Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Bengbu City in Recent 45Years Based on Standardized Precipitation Index

作　　者：张春莉[1] 叶金印[1] 邱旭敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]淮河流域气象中心,安徽蚌埠233040

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第11期9-12,135,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179045);公益性行业(气象)科研专项基金资助项目(GYHY201006037);淮河流域气象开放研究基金资助项目(HRM201002;HRM201103)

摘　　要：旱涝灾害是影响蚌埠市的主要气象灾害之一。利用蚌埠市4个县（市）气象站1967～2011年逐月降水资料，以标准化降水指数（SPI）为干旱指标，分析了近45年蚌埠市的旱涝特征。结果表明，SPI值具有阶段性特征，分别在1974年前后和20世纪90年代前期发生突变；SPI值在冬季和夏季呈增加趋势，在春季和秋季呈下降趋势，但趋势均不显著；季节性极端干旱发生频率比极端雨涝的发生频率大，而中度以下干旱发生的频率小于中度以下雨涝发生的频率；干旱发生频率最高的月份为3、4、5、11月，干旱发生频率最低的月份为9月，而雨涝发生频率最高的月份为2、7、11月，雨涝发生频率最低的月份为6月，在11月干旱和雨涝发生的频率均较高。Droughts and floods are one of the main meteorological disasters affecting Bengbu City. Based on the monthly precipitation data of 4 stations in Bengbu City from 1967 to 2011, standardized precipitation index （SPI） is used to analyze the characteristics of droughts and floods. The results show that the SPI changed with stage characteristics in the recent 45 years, and mutated in 1974 and the early 1990s; the SPI increased in winter and summer while decreased in spring and autumn, but the trends were not significant; the seasonally extreme droughts occurred more frequently than seasonally extreme floods, while seasonally mild-moderate droughts occurred less than seasonally mild-moderate floods; the frequency of monthly droughts was largest in March, April, May and November; while the least in September; the frequency of monthly floods was largest in February, July and November; while the least in June; in addition, droughts and floods both occurred frequently in November.

关 键 词：蚌埠市 标准化降水指数 旱涝 变化 分布 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]