基于组合预测模型的山西省转型期紧缺科技人才需求预测研究  

Research on Demand Forecasting of Scientific and Technological Talents in the Transition Period of Shanxi Based on Combined Forecasting Model

作　　者：卞永峰[1] 李恩平[1] 

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学经济管理学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2013年第21期41-45,共5页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：山西省科技厅软科学项目"山西省综合改革试验背景下紧缺人才需求预测及开发管理研究"(2012041041-01)

摘　　要：未来五年是山西省转型跨越发展的关键时期，而科技人才在发展中起着引领和支撑作用。在对山西省转型期紧缺科技人才类型进行分析的基础上，运用GM（1，1）灰色系统模型和趋势外推模型对山西省2012年～2016年紧缺科技人才需求量进行预测，运用组合预测模型对预测结果进行修正并分析紧缺科技人才供求缺口，以便为山西省科技人才开发与管理提供参考。The next five - year is a critical period of Shanxi province transition development period, the scientific and tech- nological talents play a lead and support role in that period. Based on the analysis of scientific and technological talents shortage types, the paper uses the gray GM （ 1, 1 ） metabolic model and trend extrapolation model separately to predict the demand of scientific and technological talents in 2012 -2016 of Shanxi, then it uses the combined forecasting model to cor- rect the forecasting result. And the paper analyzes the gap between demand and supply of the shortage of technology profes- sionals in order to provide a scientific reference for development and management of scientific and technological talents in Shanxi.

关 键 词：科技人才 需求预测 组合预测模型 缺口分析 

分 类 号：G322.7[文化科学]