入世十年我国木材产品对外贸易与木材加工产业发展关系分析  

Analysis on the Relationship between China’s Wood Products Trade and Timber Industry in 10 Years after China’ Entry into WTO

作　　者：程宝栋[1] 陈伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《林业经济》2013年第10期52-55,76,共5页Forestry Economics

基　　金：北京高等学校“青年英才计划”项目;国家自然科学基金(青年项目)“基于CAS与SD交互模型的中国木材供需预测研究”(编号:71203011)

摘　　要：加入WTO的10年间，我国木材产品对外贸易和木材加工产业实现了快速发展。为了研究入世10年来我国木材产品对外贸易与木材加工产业发展的关系，文章选取林业第二产业木材加工产业产值、木材产品进出口额，并构造了木材产品出口结构相似度指数，通过格兰杰因果关系检验，验证各变量之间的关系。实证结果表明，木材产品进口拉动了木材加工产业的发展，木材加工产业的发展促进了木材产品出口。结合实证分析，从对外贸易、国内市场以及产业发展等角度提出了相应的政策建议。It has been ten years after China Joined WTO. The international trade of wood products and timber in- dustry has been promoted dramatically in that period. In order to analyze the relationship between China＇ s wood products international trade and the development of timber industry, selecting the output value of the timber indus- try, the amount of import and export of wood products and wood products export structure similarity index, using the Granger causality test, the paper verified the relationship between each variable. It indicated that the export of wood products drove the development of timber industry while the development of timber industry encouraged the export of wood products. Lastly, this paper offered recommendation from the perspective of foreign trade, the do- mestic market and industry development based on the empirical Analysis.

关 键 词：木材产品 对外贸易 木材加工产业 关系 

分 类 号：F426.88[经济管理—产业经济] F752.6F224