基于未确知测度理论的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评估  

Crisis assessment of coal and gas outburst based on unascertained measurement theory

作　　者：张郑军 崔永国[2] 曹家琳[2] 

机构地区：[1]山西阳城阳泰集团宇昌煤业公司,山西省阳城县048100 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京市海淀区100083

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2013年第11期94-99,共6页China Coal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51274206);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(2010YZ05)

摘　　要：针对煤与瓦斯突出危险性评估难以定量判定的难题,基于未确知测度理论,建立危险性等级定量评估模型,利用专家打分法得出各影响因素及指标权重,计算出多指标综合测度评估向量,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,最后得出煤与瓦斯突出危险性的评估结果。将该评估方法应用于江西省11个矿井的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评估,并与煤层开拓开采中的实际情况进行对比分析。研究结果表明,该方法的评估结果合理、可靠,可以在煤与瓦斯突出危险性评估工作中进行推广应用。Because the crisis assessment of coal and gas outburst is difficult to quantitatively determined, the quantitative assessment model for risk rank was built up on the basis of unascertained measurement theory. The experts grading method was used to obtain overall infiuening factors and the corresponding index weight, and then the assessment vetors of multi-index com- prehensive measurement were calculated. The ranks were determined according to confidence identification criteria, and finally the results of risk assessment on coal and gas outburst were obtained. This assessment method was applied to eleven coal mines to assess coal and gas outburst, and the obtained results were compared with the actual situation during the mining. The research showed that the assessment results obtained by this method are reasonable and reliable, and it can be popularized to assess the risk of coal and gas outburst.

关 键 词：未确知测度 煤与瓦斯突出 识别准则 危险性评估 

分 类 号：TD713[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]