基于Bayes方法的初始备件调整方法研究  

A regulated method of initial spare based on the Bayes method

作　　者：李大伟[1] 张志华[1] 刘天华[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学兵器工程系,武汉430033

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第11期2967-2971,共5页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50775218);总装预研项目(51327020105;51304010206);海军工程大学博士生创新基金(HGBSJJ2011009)

摘　　要：由于环境等因素的影响,研制阶段制定的初始备件方案在使用初期常常无法满足装备保障要求.针对该现状,以装备的初始备件方案为先验信息,结合其使用阶段的备件消耗特性,利用Bayes方法,对其工作失效率进行了估计,并在此基础上,提出了装备使用初期的备件配置数量调整方法.仿真结果表明利用该方法调整后的备件数量能够满足装备的保障要求,与传统方法相比,本方法具有较高的估计精度和稳健性,能够更加合理配置备件方案.Because of the environment and so on, the spare number of initial spare scheme can＇t meet the equipment support requirement when the equipments are in incipient operation. Aim at these statuses, the initial spare scheme was used as prior information. And then the regulate method of spare in incipient operation was proposed based on the Bayes method. Finally, the simulation example shows that the method proposed is feasibility. Comparing with classical method, the method proposed can improve the accuracy of estimation and has good steadiness. So the more rational spare scheme can be formed.

关 键 词：初始备件方案 调整方法 先验分布 贝叶斯方法 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]