基于Lotka-Volterra的微博谣言事件演进分析  

On the Evolution of Rumor Events in Microblog Based on Lotka-Volterra

作　　者：刘咏梅[1] 彭琳[1] 赵振军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,长沙410012

出　　处：《情报杂志》2013年第11期110-116,共7页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：2011年教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"(编号:NCET-11-0519);教育部博士点基金项目"基于微博的网络舆情演变机理及应对研究"(编号:20110162110065)

摘　　要：微博作为新媒体时代的重要工具,为谣言的传播提供了沃土,谣言及其相伴而生的反谣言在传播过程中相互竞争。研究微博谣言事件中,谣言和反谣言的交互演进规律有助于快速有效地澄清谣言。借鉴生态学中的Lotka-Volterra种间竞争模型,建立了谣言-反谣言的传播模型,分析其在相互抑制、相互促进、促进-抑制、抑制-促进的四种作用模式下的平衡点,研究发现最终的平衡点仅由谣言-反谣言之间的影响系数来决定,同时试图以微博案例来解释微博谣言难以根除的原因。为验证模型的有效性,采用了微博2013年8月"成都高新区奥克斯广场发生劫持公交事件"的谣言事件为实证案例,采集微博相关数据,对模型进行了较好的拟合。最后提出了应对谣言、管理微博的建议。As an important communication tool of the new media era, microblog provides fertile ground for rumor＇ s spreading. Rumors and the corresponding anti-rumors compete in the communication process for more people＇ s trust. The regular pattern of rumors and anti -rumors＇ the interaction propagation is researched; it can help clarify the rumors more quickly and efficiently. Based on the Lotka-Volter- ra model in ecology, we construct the model of the dissemination of rumors and anti-rumors, solve its equilibrium points and stability un- der the four patterns of mutual promotion and mutual inhibition, then we find the final stable state just relates to the influence coefficients between rumors and anti-rumors. It is well known that microblog rumors are hard to eliminate, the paper attempts to explain the reasons from theoretical analysis and a case study. In order to examine the validity of the model, we choose a real case on the Sina Weibo microb- log platform, collect the related test data, and then use Eviews to fit the model. Finally, some suggestions on how to deal with rumors and manage the microblog are proposed.

关 键 词：谣言-反谣言传播 种间竞争模型 相互作用 微博案例 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]