工程防洪体系洪灾风险计算模型研究  

Study on Flood Risk Calculation Model of Structural Flood Control System

作　　者：陈艳[1] 陈进[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学土木建筑学院,山东青岛266510 [2]长江水利委员会长江科学院,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《人民黄河》2013年第11期8-10,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：山东科技大学"春蕾计划"资助项目(2009AZZ117)

摘　　要：利用建立的工程防洪体系洪水风险分析模型,通过对简单的线性工程防洪系统进行分析,验证了洪水演进过程中相关水利工程对于洪灾风险的影响,揭示了不同水工结构可靠度的变化对于区域洪灾风险的影响。结果表明:①利用水库多蓄滞洪水并减小下泄流量虽然增大了大坝的洪水风险,但通过合理设置蓄滞洪方案可以有效地减小整个防洪体系的洪水风险值;②在防治区域洪水的过程中,可以通过人为降低上游经济损失相对较小堤段的可靠性,在合理部位设置蓄滞洪区来降低整个防洪体系的防洪风险;③适当提高重点堤段的防洪安全性,可有效降低整个防洪体系的防洪风险。The simple linearity engineering flood control system was analyzed by using the established structural flood control system flood risk anal-ysis model. By the analysis result and the effect of water project,which was related to flood routing process on flood risk was verified. And the effect of reliability variations among different hydraulic structures on regional flood risk was revealed. The results show that：a）Although flood risk of the dam is increased by storing and detaining more flood and reducing discharge volume by using reservoir,the entire flood control system risk value is decreased effectively by reasonable storing floodwater and flood detention. b）During the process of regional flood prevention,the entire flood control system risk is decreased by decreasing reliability section of the dike on which the economic loss is relatively smaller upstream artificially and building diversion and storage works in the rational sites. c）The entire flood control system risk can be decreased effectively by improving flood prevention security of the key section appropriately.

关 键 词：水库 堤防 蓄滞洪区 洪灾风险 防洪体系 工程体系 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程] F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]