中国农村金融发展对农村经济发展的动态影响研究——基于状态空间模型的实证检验  

e Dynamic Effect of China's Rural Financial Development on Its Rural Economic Development:Based on an Empirical Study of the State Space Model

作　　者：杨刚[1,2] 王克强[2] 许丹丹[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学,浙江杭州332600 [2]上海财经大学,上海200433 [3]吉林财经大学,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《贵州大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第5期20-28,共9页Journal of Guizhou University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金第53批面上项目[项目编号:2013M531157];国家社科基金重大项目[项目编号:08AJL009];国家社科基金项目[项目编号:08BJL041];浙江农林大学人才基金项目[编号:2012FR101]阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文通过构建状态空间模型,实证分析了我国农村金融发展对农村经济发展的动态影响力,结果发现:农村金融发展对农村经济发展的影响显著,总体上看正向效应要大于负向效应,但是影响力还有待提高。要充分发挥农村金融的作用,必须解决两个金融瓶颈问题,即固定资产投资效率不高和"金融抑制"效应明显的问题。这两个瓶颈问题可以归结为农村投资问题:投资力度不够,投资效率不高。只有解决了农村投资问题,才能充分发挥农村金融作用以促进农村经济可持续发展。With the constructing of a state space model, the present paper empirically analyzes the dynamic influence of China＇s rural financial development on the development of its rural economy. The results show that the influence of rural financial development on rural economic development is significant, and in general, the positive influence is greater than the negative one. However, a lot of work has to be done if its influence is to be improved. To give a full play to the role of rural finance, two financial bottleneck problems have to be solved, namely, the low efficiency of fixed asset investment and the serious ＂financial repression＂ effects. These two problems can be regarded as the problems of rural investment： inadequate investment as well as low investment efficiency. Only when the problem related to the investment in the rural areas is solved, can we give full play to the role of its rural finance to promote the sustainable development of its rural economy.

关 键 词：农村金融 农村经济 金融瓶颈 金融抑制 状态空间模型 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]