农户决策对其支付意愿影响的博弈论研究  

Game Theory Study of Impacts from Farmer's Decisions on Willingness to Pay

作　　者：王绪龙[1] 周静[1] 张红[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学经济管理学院,辽宁沈阳110866 [2]济南大学经济学院,山东济南250022

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第11期171-176,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：辽宁省社科规划基金项目"辽宁省农业生态建设与可持续发展研究"(编号:L11BJL026)

摘　　要：农户对农业生态环境的支付意愿受多种因素影响,除农户特征因素外,农户的决策环境也会影响农户的支付意愿。博弈模型分析表明,农户间会出现"囚徒困境"、"智猪博弈"和"斗鸡博弈",农户后期的决策行为很可能受其他农户前期的决策影响而演变为不愿意支付。对辽西地区的农户进行案例调查,运用调查数据进行Logit回归和线性回归分析,得出显著影响因素。研究发现,影响农户是否愿意支付的显著因素与影响农户愿意支付的显著因素有差异,影响农户是否愿意支付的显著因素有教育程度、收入主要来源和耕地面积,而影响农户愿意支付的显著因素有年龄、收入主要来源、耕地面积、制度和决策环境;农户决策变量对农户愿意支付的影响程度显著,即其他农户的决策是导致愿意支付农户后来是否继续愿意支付的一个重要因素。因此,为了让愿意支付的农户在后期继续愿意支付,相应的政策建议为,采取措施减少农户支付的外部性,提高农户支付收益;让农户支付隐形收益显性化。Farmer＇ s willingness to pay to agroecological environment can be affected by many factors.Apart from the factors of farmer＇ s characteristic,farmer＇ s willingness to pay can also be affected by farmer＇ s decision-making environment.Game theory shows that the results of ‘ Prisoner＇ s Dilemma＇,‘ Clever Pig Game＇ and ‘ Chicken Game＇ exist among farmers.Some farmer＇s decision would possibly be affected by other farmer s＇ early decisions and turns into unwillingness.After the case study and its data analysis of Logit Regression and Linear Regression on farmers in western area of Liaoning Province,significant influencing factors are found.The research shows that the significant influencing factors of farmer＇ s willingness to pay or not is different from the influencing factors of farmer＇s willingness to pay.The former factors include farmer＇s education status,major source of income and agricultural acreage,while the latter factors include farmer＇ s age,major source of income,agricultural acreage,the institution and the decision-making environment.Farmer＇s decision-making variable has a great influence on the willingness to pay,namely some farmers＇ early decision would greatly influence other farmers＇ continuous willingness to pay or not.Therefore,to encourage farmers＇ continuous willingness to pay,the relevant policies are suggested as follows：taking measures to reduce the externality of farmers＇ pay,increasing the profit of farmer＇ pay and making farmers＇ invisible profit explicit.

关 键 词：农业生态环境 支付意愿 博弈 影响因素 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] F205