基于时间序列的天然林林分直径分布预测模型  

Predicting model of stand diameter distribution of natural forests based on time series

作　　者：周新年[1] 陈辉荣[1] 游航 胡喜生[1] 郑丽凤[1] 巫志龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学交通与土木工程学院,福建福州350002 [2]建瓯市林业局,福建建瓯353100

出　　处：《福建林学院学报》2013年第4期298-304,共7页Journal of Fujian College of Forestry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(30972359;31070567);福建省科技厅重点科学基金资助项目(2007N0002)

摘　　要：基于长期跟踪复测数据,对比贝塔分布模型、威布尔分布模型和负指数分布模型的拟合效果,从中选择效果最佳的负指数分布模型,推导其参数a和K的变化规律,构建具有时间序列的直径分布预测模型。结果表明,具有时间序列的负指数分布模型可以预测自采伐算起30 a内的林分直径分布,为林分生长动态的研究奠定了基础。Based on the long-term tracking retest data, the fitting effects were compared among beta distribution, weibull distribution and negative-exponential distribution. The negative-exponential distribution model with the best fitting effect was chosen and the change pattern of its parameters a and K was derived to construct a predicting model of diameter distribution with time series. It has been proved that the negatlve-exponential distribution model with time series could predict the diameter distribution in 30 years from the logging date and lay the foundation for studies of stand growth dynamics.

关 键 词：直径分布 时间序列 负指数 天然林 

分 类 号：S752.2[农业科学—森林经理学]