北京市蒙古栎单木与年龄无关的生长预测模型研究  

Study on age-independent growth prediction models of individual tree for Quercus mongolica in Beijing

作　　者：高东启 邓华锋[1] 程志楚[2] 王海宾[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学林学院,北京100083 [2]国家林业局调查规划设计院,北京100029

出　　处：《福建林学院学报》2013年第4期305-309,共5页Journal of Fujian College of Forestry

基　　金：北京市教育委员会科学研究与科研基地建设基金资助项目(省部共建重点实验室);林业公益性行业科研专项基金资助(201004008)

摘　　要：为了准确预测林木的生长动态变化、科学经营管理林分,利用定期清查数据,以年龄隐含的单木模型拟合北京市蒙古栎单木胸径、材积和断面积生长预测模型,并进行检验。结果表明:所拟合的3个模型对蒙古栎单木胸径、材积和断面积生长状况的预测效果较好,预测精度分别高达99.72%、99.40%、99.46%,预测精度大小排序为:胸径>断面积>材积。预测精度较高的原因可能是年龄隐含的生长模型以单木自身的观测值为自变量,且蒙古栎生长较慢,短期内不会有太大变化。该模型具有与年龄无关的特点,但建模时有一定的限制条件,要求样地固定、重复观测。In order to accurately predict the growth of individual tree and scientifically manage the forest, with the periodic inventory data, age implied individual tree model was taken to simulate growth prediction models of individual tree diameter at breast height, volume and basal area for Quercus mongolica in Beijing, and the verification was conducted. Results showed that forecast effects of the three models which had been simulated were good for individual tree diameter at breast height, volume and the basal area of Q. mongolica, prediction accuracy was as high as 99.72%, 99.40%, 99.46% respectively, the degree of the prediction accuracy： di- ameter at breast height 〉 basal area 〉 volume. The cause of the high precision might be that age implied individual tree model regar- ded own observations as independent variables, and Q. mongolica grew slowly, and the growth trend did not vary in the short term. The model was age-independent, but application of the model had certain limits, the samples needed to be fixed, and observations needed to be conducted repeatedly.

关 键 词：定期清查数据 单木模型 蒙古栎 

分 类 号：S757.2[农业科学—森林经理学]