基于模糊贝叶斯的导弹武器系统可靠性和可用性分析  

Reliability and Availability Analysis of Missile Weapon System Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Theory

作　　者：杨继坤[1] 袁峰[2] 翁璐[3] 徐廷学[4] 王浩伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院研究生管理大队 [2]91960部队 [3]海军装备部军械保障部 [4]海军航空工程学院兵器科学与技术系

出　　处：《海军航空工程学院学报》2013年第5期543-548,共6页Journal of Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University

基　　金：国家部委基础科研基金资助项目(40108)

摘　　要：综合考虑了装备、保障系统、管理和人员、保障方案等要素,提出了一种基于模糊贝叶斯的导弹武器系统可靠性和可用性分析方法,将先验信息和样本数据有效融合,采用模糊随机变量来处理数据的不确定。通过算例分析,验证了模型的有效性。结论表明,该方法所得的评估结果符合装备的实际情况。Considering all equipments, support system, management and personnel, and plan, a new modeling method for determining the reliability and availability of a missile weapon system was proposed based on fuzzy Bayesian theory. The model made fifll use of prior information and statistics, and adopted fuzzy random vari- ables to handle uncertainty of data. The suggested modeling method was illustrated on an example. The resuhs showed that the methods based on fuzzy Bayesian theory were applicative to missile weapon system.

关 键 词：模糊随机变量 贝叶斯理论 导弹武器系统 可靠性 可用性 

分 类 号：TJ760.1[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]