气候变暖背景下中国南方水稻生长季可利用率变化趋势  

Tendency of Use Efficiency of Rice Growth Season in Southern China Under the Background of Global Warming

作　　者：叶清[1,2] 杨晓光[2] 解文娟[2,3] 李勇[2,4] 刘子琪[2] 董朝阳[2] 孙爽[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学园林与艺术学院,南昌330045 [2]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [3]沈阳农业大学农学院,沈阳110866 [4]贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵阳550002

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2013年第21期4399-4415,共17页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项项目(200903003);全球气候变化研究国家重大科学研究计划("973"计划)(2010CB951502)

摘　　要：【目的】研究1951—2010年中国南方主要熟制水稻生长季可利用率的空间分布特征及演变趋势,为南方稻作区种植制度调整提供理论参考。【方法】基于前人种植制度区划方法将南方稻作区分为16个水稻种植亚区,假设不同稻作制的作物品种搭配不变,采用水稻生育期气象生态模拟方法,利用水稻潜在生长季长度与理论生长季长度的比值,评价气候变化背景下研究区域各亚区水稻生长季可利用率的分布特征及演变趋势。【结果】利用ArcGIS对1951—2010年水稻潜在生长季长度的地理分布函数进行运算,获取了南方稻作区80%保证率水稻潜在生长季长度的10 km×10 km的空间分布数据;数据结果表明,气候变化背景下南方稻作区水稻潜在生长季长度呈先增后减的变化趋势,单季稻种植区水稻潜在生长季长度增幅大于双季稻种植区;研究区不同熟制水稻的理论生长季呈缩短趋势,单季稻种植区缩短天数大于双季稻种植区;水稻潜在生长季的延长和水稻理论生长季的缩短造成了水稻生长季可利用率呈增加趋势。【结论】气候变暖背景下中国南方主要熟制水稻生长季可利用率呈增加趋势,合理安排熟制、提高复种指数是气候变化背景下提高水稻生长季利用率的主要措施。Abstract： [ Objective ] Based on the analysis of the spatial and temporal pattems of the use efficiency of rice growth season in the rice production region of Southern China during 1951 to 2010, this study could provide a insight to improve rationally arrange rice production activities under global warming. [Method] In this study, classification method of cropping system referred to previous work was used to divide the rice production region of Southem China into 16 zones. And assuming the breed collocation is unchanged in different cropping systems, the ratio of the potential length of growing season to theoretical length and a ecometeorological simulation method of the rice growth period were used to evaluate the distribution characteristics and the evolution trend of the use efficiency of the rice growth period in sub regions under the background of climate change in the study area. [ Result ] In this study, ArcGIS was used to calculate the geographic distribution function of the potential growing season length from 1951 to 2010, and got the 10 kmx 10 km spatial distribution data of the rice growing season length in 80% guaranteed rate in southern rice area. Results show that the potential growth season length of rice increased first and then reduced under the background of climate change in Southern China, and increased greater in single rice planting regions compared with that in double rice planting regions. In addition, there was a decreasing trend in the theoretical growth season length in different cropping systems, and theshorten days in the single rice planting regions was more than the double rice ptanung regions.The extension of the potential growth season length and shortening of the theoretical growth season length result in the increasing trend of the use efficiency of the rice growth period. [Conclusion] The use efficiency of the rice growth period in Southern China has an increasing trend under the background of global warming. Arranging accommodative cropping system and increasing the multipl

关 键 词：气候变化 水稻 生长季长度 可利用率 变化趋势 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学]