基于灰色Compertz模型的煤矿地表沉陷灾害特征值预测  

Prediction of Characteristic Value of Ground Subsidence Disaster in Coal Mining Area Based on Grey Compertz Model

作　　者：施式亮[1,2] 罗文柯[1,2] 李润求[1,2] 念其锋[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学能源与安全工程学院,湖南湘潭411201 [2]煤矿安全开采技术湖南省重点实验室,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2013年第9期9-14,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51274100,51274098,50774033);国家安全生产监督管理总局安全生产科技发展计划项目(08-203,HN08-19,06-394);湖南省科技厅计划一般项目(2012FJ4268)

摘　　要：为充分利用表征煤矿地表沉陷灾害特征的沉降量这一数据信息,采用灰色Compertz(龚伯兹曲线)模型对其进行预测,同时提高预测精度,实现对地表沉陷灾害的早期识别和预警。以地表沉降量观测数据为依据,根据沉降量变化非线性特征,构建灰色理论与Compertz耦合的预测模型。以样本数据预测误差最小为原则,构建煤矿区地表沉陷灾害特征值预测模型。以金竹山土朱矿为实例进行应用,利用灰色Compertz预测模型对87个地面观测点沉陷特征数据进行分析和预测。结果表明,预测值与实际观测值拟合度高,精度等级达到了一级,预测结果可靠。In order to make full use of subsidence disaster characteristics data information of surface sub- sidence characterization in coal minning area, the grey Compertz model is adopted to carry out predicting subsidence disaseer and to improve prediction accuracy. Based on surface subsidence observation data, according to non-linear characteristics of ground subsidence, a coupling prediction model combining grey theory and Compertz is built. A prediction model of the characteristic value of subsidence disaster is built on the basis of principle of minimum sample data of prediction errors in a coal mine. With application of the characteristics data from 87 observation points for ground subsidence in Tuzhu mine, the characteristic value of surface subsidence disaster is analyzed and predicted using grey Compertz forecasting model in coal mine. The researched results show that fitting degree between predicted values and actual values is high, the predicted precision rank has reached level I and prediction results are reliable.

关 键 词：灰色预测 Compertz模型 地表沉陷 灾害特征值 预测精度 煤矿 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]