企业安全生产预警预报机制建设研究  

Research on Enterprise Work Safety Early Warning Mechanism Constuction

作　　者：张道斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家安全生产监督管理总局化学品登记中心,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2013年第9期154-158,共5页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：为实现企业安全生产预警预报,预防事故发生,首先运用"事故当量"概念,以企业日常事故隐患排查为基础,辨识作业环境中物的不安全状态、人的不安全行为、有害作业环境和管理上的缺陷等预警要素。然后,将分析得出的预警要素及可能造成的后果进行量化,加权得出伤害统计值,并对系数加以修正,计算得出当期的安全生产预警指数。最后,运用预测理论建立数学模型,预测未来的安全生产趋势,形成安全生产指数图和趋势图。结果表明:安全生产预警指数曲线的升高和降低,能直接反映企业当前的安全生产状况,并能预测企业未来安全生产发展趋势。For the sake of realizing the aims of early warning and accident prediction and prevention in enterprises, firstly, material unsafe condition, human unsafe behavior, harmful working environment and management deficiencies were identified as the factors to be early warned , using the concept of ＂accident equivalent＂, based on the daily accident potential checking work. Then the early warning elements and their possible consequences were quantified and weighted to get the damage statistics, and also the coeffi- cients were amended, and the current work safety early warning index was obtained by calculation. Final- ly, a mathematical model for predicting work safety trend was built by implying the prediction theory. Work safety index charts were drawn. The result shows that the rise and down of the work safety early warning curve can directly reflect the current work safety situation and also predict the development trend of work safty in the future.

关 键 词：事故隐患 预警要素 伤害统计值 预警指数 安全生产趋势 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]