我国主要农产品价格波动周期与趋势预测的实证研究  

Research on main agricultural products price fluctuation and trend prediction in China

作　　者：周伍阳[1] 李毅[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学经济与贸易学院,重庆400050 [2]湖南理工学院经济与管理学院,湖南岳阳414006

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2013年第21期221-224,共4页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：重庆市社会科学规划博士项目(2012BS08);重庆理工大学博士科研启动基金(2012ZD41);国家社会科学基金(10BJL020)

摘　　要：选取我国主要农产品生产价格指数为研究对象,结合经济理论分析当前农产品价格波动来源,并根据2002—2012年度的我国主要农产品稻谷、小麦、大豆以及生猪统计资料,运用二次指数平滑法分离出这几种农产品的价格趋势,通过历史时间序列与趋势的比较,分析农产品波动周期,并进一步对未来价格走势做预测,最后针对我国主要农产品波动规律,提出建立农产品市场监测与预警机制的政策建议。The producer price index of main agricultural products in China are selected as the research object, and the current sources of agricultural price volatility are analyzed with economic theory. According to 2002--2012 statistics data of the main agricultural products such as rice, wheat, soybeans, and pork, the secondary exponential smoothing method is used to separate out the price trends of agricultural products, which are compared with historical time series fluctuations to realize the cycles of agricultural products and forecast the future trends. At last, suggestions are putted forward to perfect the agricultural product market monitoring and early warning mechanism according to the variation rule of the main agricultural products in China.

关 键 词：农产品 价格波动 指数平滑法 实证分析 

分 类 号：F304.2[经济管理—产业经济]