农村一孩户再生育意愿研究——基于三省农村已婚有偶育龄妇女调查  

A Study of Rural One-child Family's Reproductive Desire:Based on Surveys of Women of Childbearing Age from Three Provinces

作　　者：伍海诚[1] 乔天宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市人民政府研究室,北京100744 [2]北京大学社会学系,北京100871

出　　处：《人口与经济》2013年第6期30-38,共9页Population & Economics

摘　　要：本文从生育决策行为的序次模式的视角出发,将农村一男户和一女户的再生育意愿在数量和性别两个维度上进行比较,使用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心2010年采集的三省六地"家庭及生育状况研究调查"数据,运用样本选择的Probit模型,对其影响因素进行分析。研究发现一男户和一女户的意愿再生育孩子数量没有显著差异,都希望再生一个孩子;二者在意愿再生育孩子性别上表现出显著的差异,一女户更想再生一个男孩,而一男户更有可能想再生一个女孩。中国农村中"一儿一女"的孩子结构诉求仍是主流。理想孩子数量与性别结构、婚育新观念等文化因素显著影响再生育意愿。This article compares reproductive desire between one-boy-family and one-girl-family based on Sequential Decision Model, using sample survey data of rural women from 3 provinces. Selection Probit Model has been used to analyze the factors associated with reproductive desire. The results show no difference between one-boy-family and one-girl-family in desired quantity of marginal child while huge difference in desired sex. ＂One Boy and One Girl＂ is still the ideal children structure for rural women. From the results this article also finds that factors representing culture such as ideal children structure and new sense of marriage, influence reproductive desire significantly.

关 键 词：一孩户 再生育意愿 序次模式 样本选择Probit模型 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]