未来气候变化对黄河流域水文过程的影响  

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrological Processes over the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：曹丽娟[1] 董文杰[2] 张勇[3] 冯锦明[4] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [2]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081 [4]中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2013年第6期746-756,共11页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目2010CB950501;国家高技术研究发展计划项目2010AA012305;国家自然科学基金项目40805060;40975048

摘　　要：使用NASA/NCAR有限区域大气环流模型FvGCM结果驱动高分辨率区域气候模式RegCM3(20 km),进行1961～1990年当代气候模拟(控制试验)和2071～2100年IPCC A2排放情景下未来气候模拟(A2情景模拟试验)。将RegCM3径流模拟结果同大尺度汇流模型LRM[分辨率0.25°(纬度)×0.25°(经度)]相连接,模拟预估未来气候变化对我国黄河流域水文过程的影响。结果表明:相对于当代气候,未来黄河流域呈现气温升高、降水增加(夏季7～8月降水减少)和蒸发增大的趋势,且空间分布极不均匀,造成河川径流在5～10月减少,加剧流域夏季的水资源短缺;未来气温升高使得融雪径流增加,可能导致更早和更大的春季径流,使径流过程发生季节性迁移,引起黄河流域水资源年内分配发生变化。To investigate the hydrological processes in the Yellow River basin that may be affected by climate change in the future, the regional climate model （RegCM3） is nested in one-way mode within a NASA/NCAR finite volume element AGCM （FvGCM） to carry out two 30-year simulations （with a resolution of 20 kin） for present day （1961-1990） and the future （2071-2100） under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. In this scenario, runoff outputs are used to drive a large-scale routing model [0.25° （latitude） × 0.25° （longitude）] to project changes in future climate and hydrological processes and extreme hydrological events over the Yellow River basin. The results show that on average the temperature will increase when precipitation is augmented （decreasing in July and August） and evapotranspiration will also increase in the future, with a highly nonuniform spatial distribution over the whole basin in summer. Streamflow will also decrease, especially inflood season from May to October, which may aggravate a crisis of water resources shortages throughout the basin. The increased temperature will also augment snow melt runoff, which may lead to more and earlier spring runoff, and ultimately give rise to changes in the seasonal rainfall-runoff processes and the allocation of intra-annual water resources.

关 键 词：气候变化 A2情景 黄河流域 径流 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]