量化宽松影响下中国的经济周期波动分析  

Quantitive Ease Shocks and China's Economic Fluctuation

作　　者：刘尧成[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学商学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2013年第12期1-11,共11页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目<国际量化宽松冲击对中国经济的动态影响与应对策略研究>(批准号:13CJL030);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题<中国国际收支失衡的可持续性与最优对策组合研究>(批准号:2012EJL001)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文基于银行业处于中国金融市场中主导地位,以及居民金融财富主要以银行存款保有等基本特征,论述指出中国银行业在国际量化宽松冲击的影响下存在着内生性的信贷扩张机制,并通过建模分析比较了两种不同形式货币冲击下中国的经济波动情况,指出大规模的信贷扩张改变了中国的货币增长率方式并致使实际产出和货币供应量呈反周期波动,从而形成了国际量化宽松以来中国经济周期波动中特有的金融加速器机制。随着未来国际量化宽松政策的变化,这种机制会给中国经济的运行带来风险,对此我们也提出了相应的对策与建议。In this paper we declare that as China＇s banks dominate its financial markets and citizens in Chi- na keep bank deposits as their main financial assets, banks in China have the incentive to expand their loans in the ease of intemational quantitive ease. Then we build a model to see China＇s business cycles under two different monetary shocks, which says that the explosive loans changed China＇s monetary growth rate, leading to the eountercyclical fluctuations of China＇s product growth rate and money supply, and this process is actu- ally China＇s special financial accelerator mechanism in its business cycles. This mechanism may bring risks to China＇s economy when the international quantitive ease varies in the future, and we also put forward to the corresponding policy suggestions.

关 键 词：量化宽松 金融加速器 经济波动 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F224