中国出口结构转换的能力与对策——基于产品密度的阶层线性分析  

Capacity and Policy of Export Structure Transformation in China:Analysis Based on Product Density by HLM

作　　者：邸玉娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2013年第12期101-111,共11页Finance & Economics

基　　金：2011年度国家社科基金项目"中国跨越'中等收入陷阱'的战略创新研究"(编号:11CJL003)

摘　　要：通过对各国出口产品的发展现状、发展阶段及发展趋势等多角度的比较,发现中国资本密集型产品的显性比较优势处于低位。中国出口结构从劳动密集型产品向资本密集型产品转换的实现需要微观的生产能力和宏观的有力政策。文中引入产品密度指标以衡量各国的产品结构转换能力,运用阶层线性模型分析微观生产与宏观调控政策对产品优势的交互作用。实证结果表明,中国应把握当前经济增速放缓的机遇,通过提升居民消费能力、增加科研开发投入和扩大中小企业利润份额等方式提升资本密集型产品的竞争力,实现出口结构的转换。From the views of development status, development stages and development trends, the Revealed Comparative Advantage of capital- intensive products in China is lower than this in other countries. China should promote related industry and macro policies to change the advantage of export from labor- intensive products to capital intensive products. This paper introduces a product density index to measure the capabili- ty of structure transformation. And use HLM to analyze the interaction between product and policies. The empirical result shows that, China should grab the opportunity of growth slowdown to increase the competitive advantage of capital - intensive products by improving the residential consumption, and rising R＆D expendi- ture, expanding the profit share of medium and small companies.

关 键 词：出口结构 资本密集型产品 产品密度 阶层线性模型 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F224[经济管理—产业经济]