基于马尔可夫模型的我国农业产值结构预测  

Prediction Structure of Agriculture Output Value Based on Markova Model

作　　者：鞠金艳[1] 祝荣欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江科技大学机械工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150022

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第22期65-70,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：黑龙江自然科学基金(QC2011C045)

摘　　要：利用马尔可夫模型对我国农业产值结构的预测问题进行了研究,并给出了其状态转移概率矩阵的估算模型与优化方法,应用此模型依据1999-2009年我国农业产值结构的统计数据,预测了农、林、牧、渔各业的产值结构.预测结果表明,该方法对农业产值结构的平均拟合误差为3.08%.用2010-2011年农业产值结构数据进行检验预测,结果表明模型可以有效地提高农业产值结构的预测精度.最后,用模型对2012-2015年我国农业产值结构进行了预测.The gross output value structure of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery was predicted using Markov prediction model, estimation model and optimization methods of transition probability matrix of Markov was provided. Based on the statistical data of structure of China＇s agricultural output values from 1999 to 2009, the output values of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery were predicted by Markov model. The prediction results show that the fitting mean percentage error is 3.08%. The validation prediction was carried out using 2010-2011 agricultural output structure data, the results show that this prediction model could efficiently improve prediction accuracy for structure of agricultural gross output value. Finally, output value structure of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery were predicted from 2012 to 2015.

关 键 词：农业产值结构 马尔可夫模型 转移概率 非线性规划 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F321