基于AHP-Logit模型的竞争性售电公司决策研究  

AHP-Logit Based Decision-making Scheme for Competitive Electricity Retailer

作　　者：罗琴[1] 宋依群[1] 徐剑[2] 陈飞杰[2] 薛琼[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学,上海200240 [2]上海市电力公司市区供电公司,上海200080

出　　处：《华东电力》2013年第11期2373-2377,共5页East China Electric Power

摘　　要：在竞争性的电力零售市场中,售电公司失去垄断地位,不仅仍需面临现货市场价格和用户负荷的不确定性,还需要面临销售电价过高时用户可能流失的风险。为弥补传统购电决策的不足之出,本文基于AHPLogit方法分析销售电价对市场份额的影响,结合VaR风险度量方法,以售电公司效用最大化为目标,为不同风险偏好的零售公司建立了销售电价及购电组合决策模型。以PJM数据为基础进行算例仿真,进一步阐述了开放的零售市场环境为零售公司带来的影响。In the competitive electricity retail market, the retailers have lost their monopoly, so they not only have to face the uncertainty from spot market price and user demand, but also have to face the risk of losing their customers if the selling price is not competitive enough. To overcome the shortage of traditional decision-making method, this research analyzes the sale price influence on market share based on AHP-Logit method as well as VaR （value-at-risk） methodology, and then establishes a portfolio decision-making model of sale price and electricity procurement for re-tailers with different risk preferences, aiming at maximal corporate utility. The calculation simulation based on PJM data further expounds the effects of open retail market environment on retailing companies.

关 键 词：零售市场 销售电价 购电决策 AHP—Logit VaR 

分 类 号：F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]