中国公民出境旅游人均消费支出变化趋势研究  

Research on Trends of Per Capital Expenditure of Chinese Citizens Outbound Tourism

作　　者：郭振江[1] 李锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南大学旅游科学研究所,河南开封475001

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2013年第5期26-32,61,共8页Tourism Forum

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金项目(11YJA630043);国家旅游局规划项目(12TACG011)

摘　　要：出境旅游人均支出指标是探求出境旅游发展阶段及出境旅游是否适应国民经济发展阶段的论据指标。研究发现1995-2012年中国出境旅游人均支出变化大致可以分为3个阶段:1995-2000年因公出境占主体且比较稳定,在经济的带动下出境旅游人均支出水平逐年攀升;2001-2004年,在经济和政策的双重影响下出境人员结构剧烈变动,大量初具出境能力的较低消费群体涌入出境市场产生抑制作用,导致人均支出水平的连年下跌;2005-2012年,出境人员结构的变动相对缓和,经济的拉动刺激作用强势,人均支出水平重新回到逐年增长的态势之中。整体而言,发现国民经济的发展引致出境旅游人员结构、旅游人次、旅游流、出境旅游支付能力的多重交互变化。横向与世界平均水平对比得知,中国虽然出境支出总额庞大,但是人均支出水平在经历长时间的发展后只是达到世界的平均水平。The index of average expenses per person is an argument that can show the stage of outbound tourism and whether traveling abroad goes along with the national economic development. The change of average expenses per person of outbound tourism of Chinese citizens can be divided into three phases in the years of 1995 to 2012： From 1995 to 2000, outbound tourism clue to public affairs dominated and kept steady comparatively, and the average expenses per person of outbound tourists went up year by year in the stimulus of economic development~ While in the years of 2001 to 2004, the structure of outbound tourists changed dramatically, affected by both economy and policy. A multitude of consumers with very limited capacity of consumption, who newly gained the access to go abroad, poured into the abroad market, which had negative results, decreasing the average level of expenses per person year by year. From 2005 to 2012, the change of the structure of outbound tourists is relatively moderate. Because economic drive and stimulation is prevailing, the average expenses per person is going back to the state of increasing year by year. Through the overall analysis, we find that the development of national economy finally determines the multiple and interactive changes of the structure, the frequency and the capacity to pay. Compared with the average of the world horizontally, it can be drawn that though the whole expenses of outbound tourism of is gigantic in China, however, after undergoing long periods of development of average expenses per person, it only meets the average standard of the world.

关 键 词：出境旅游 人均支出 变化趋势 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]