中国老年人不健康寿命变动的分状态贡献率研究  

State-specific Contribution Rate to the Change of Chinese Elders' Unhealthy Life Expectancy

作　　者：杨贞贞[1] 米红[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《南方人口》2013年第5期47-52,70,共7页South China Population

基　　金：国家科技部支撑计划课题"劳动保障政策仿真模型平台与决策支持系统_专业模型开发"(No.2012BAK22B02);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"社会养老服务体系建设研究"(No.12JZD035);浙江省自然科学基金重点项目(No.LZ13G030001)阶段性成果的一部分

摘　　要：结合2005年1%人口抽样调查数据与全国2010年人口普查数据,运用Sullivan法,研究老年人不健康寿命变动的分状态贡献率。结果表明:60-97岁老年人的不健康阶段主要为不健康但生活能自理状态,而97岁以上老年人的不健康阶段主要为生活不能自理状态;与2005年相比,老年人不健康寿命及比重均变小,符合"疾病压缩理论",但分状态寿命的变动趋势存在显著差异;生活不能自理状态对不健康寿命缩短的贡献率大于不健康但生活能自理状态。因此,老年个体不仅整体健康状况改善,健康结构也在不断优化;这意味着老年个体对照护资源需求量及需求种类均发生变化。Sullivan method is used to analysis Chinese elders＇ state-specific contribution to the change of unhealthy life expectancy based on 2005 population sample survey and 2010 population census. Results indicate： the unhealthy life expectancy of the elders of 60-97 is the unhealthy status but with ability to take basic daily activities （LUA）, while the unhealthy life expectancy of the elders above 97 is their disability to do anything （LUUA）, the elders＇ unhealthy life expectancy and its proportion in the life expectancy in 2010 has declined compared with 2005 which is in accordance with the pattern of morbidity compression, but the change of LUA and LUA are significantly different, the contribution rate of LUA to the compression of the unhealthy life expectancy is larger than that of LUUA. That is to say, not only the Chinese elders＇ total health status is improving, but the unhealthy state structure is improving, which means both the total demanding of the social care services and the types of services are to change accordingly.

关 键 词：不健康寿命 变动 分状态 贡献率 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]