中国人口结构变动与制造业出口结构优化  

Demographic Structure Change and Manufacturing Industries' Export Structure Upgrading

作　　者：王有鑫[1] 赵雅婧[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《南方人口》2013年第5期61-70,共10页South China Population

摘　　要：本文首先从理论上分析了人口结构变动对出口比较优势的影响,然后利用中国2001-2010年28个制造业和人口结构数据,采用交叉项方法实证研究了人口结构少子化和老龄化变动趋势对出口结构优化的影响。结果发现少子化使未来劳动力供给和消费减少、储蓄和投资增加;老龄化使劳动效率下降,居民预防性储蓄增加。人口结构变动使资本要素变得相对充裕,劳动要素相对稀缺,促使出口结构实现优化升级,由劳动密集型商品出口为主向资本密集型商品转移。Theoretically the demographic structure changes have impacts on the comparative advantage of export. The data analysis of 28 manufacturing industries and demographic structure from 2001-2010 empirically shows that the trend of fewer children and population aging indeed impacts on the export structure upgrading. To be specifiC, the fewer children decrease the future labor supply and consumption while increase the savings and investment, the trend of aging diminishes labor efficiency while raises precautionary savings. The changes of demographic structure makes capital abundant while labor scarce and impel the optimization and upgrading of export structure from labor-intensive products to capital-intensive goods.

关 键 词：人口结构变动 少子化 老龄化 出口结构优化 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]