基于熵权法与模糊综合分析法的病险水闸风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Dangerous Sluice Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Analysis and Entropy Weight Method

作　　者：张宇华[1,2] 靳聪聪[3] 范冰[3] 李慧[3] 

机构地区：[1]黄河水利职业技术学院,河南开封475003 [2]小流域水利河南省高校工程技术研究中心,河南开封475003 [3]华北水利水电大学水利学院,河南郑州450011

出　　处：《水力发电》2013年第12期39-42,93,共5页Water Power

基　　金：河南省教育厅自然科学资助计划项目(2011B570006)

摘　　要：通过建立病险水闸的风险评判指标体系,运用熵权法和模糊综合分析法评估水闸的风险等级。以某地区26座病险水闸的现场调查分析、现场安全检测和工程复核计算分析报告等资料为基础,计算病险水闸评判指标体系的重要度,并结合熵权得出各评价指标的综合权重,构建隶属函数进行单因素评判,通过模糊加权法综合评估大岑寨闸的风险等级。结果表明,该水闸风险等级为高风险。该评价方法可对区域内一批病险水闸按风险值高低进行科学规划,进而分批实施病险水闸的除险加固。The risk assessment indicator system of dangerous sluice is developed and the entropy weight method and fuzzy mathematics theory are applied to assess the risk degree. Based on the statistical database which includes on--site investigation and security detection information and engineering review analysis of twenty-six dangerous sluices in a region, the importance of risk assessment indicator system of dangerous sluice is calculated and the comprehensive weight of each indicator is gained by entropy weight. Then the membership function is buih to conduct the single factor evaluation, and finally the risk level is comprehensively evaluated by fuzzy weighting method. The risk level of Dacenzhai Sluice is evaluated by this method, and the result shows that the sluice is high-risk. This method can be applied to scientifically plan the reinforcements of dangerous sluices.

关 键 词：水闸 重要度 熵权法 模糊加权法 风险评价 

分 类 号：TV66[水利工程—水利水电工程]