基于系统动力学的闭环反馈水资源优化配置研究  

Water resources optimal allocation based on closed-loop feedback in system dynamics

作　　者：李维乾[1] 解建仓[2] 李建勋[3] 罗军刚[2] 孙博[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安工程大学计算机科学学院,陕西西安710048 [2]西安理工大学水资源研究所,陕西西安710048 [3]西安理工大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第11期209-216,共8页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51079120;51109177;51109175);公益性行业科研专项(201001011);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10XJCZH002);陕西省教育厅科学研究计划项目(12JK0481)

摘　　要：【目的】建立水资源优化配置模型,在刻画水资源配置过程复杂性的同时,探讨盈余水量回收再配置机制对区域水资源的影响,使有限的水资源得到合理利用。【方法】构建基于系统动力学的闭环反馈水资源优化配置模型,采用系统动力学软件Vensim,将水资源供需系统及与水资源有关的经济、社会、人口、环境等影响因素以图形化的方式表达出来,用变量记号和方程式表述变量之间的因果关系;同时在模型中增加盈余水量的回收再配置环节,通过设置盈余水量回收比例和回收延迟参数,探讨其对区域水资源配置结果的影响,最后对此模型进行实例应用,并与基于多目标遗传算法的水资源配置方案进行比较。【结果】基于系统动力学的闭环反馈水资源优化配置模型,充分展现了区域供水量、需水量、用水量、回收水量之间的关系,以及其与区域经济、社会、人口、环境之间复杂的因果关系。通过改变盈余水量回收比例和回收延迟参数对模型进行验证,表明盈余水量回收机制设置合理,且盈余水量全部回收可明显增加区域的总供水量;与基于多目标遗传算法的水资源配置方案的配置结果相比,利用基于系统动力学的闭环反馈水资源优化配置模型的配置结果,使实例研究区域2015,2020和2030年的缺水量分别减少1 719,1 388和2 307万m3。【结论】所建立的基于系统动力学的闭环反馈水资源优化配置模型合理、可靠,为地区水资源的优化配置提供了一条有效途径。【Objective】The water resources optimal allocation model was established to depict the complexity f water resources optimal allocation process,and investigate the effects of the surplus water recycled mechanism to the regional water resources.【Method】Based on the closed-loop feedback in system dynamics,a water resources optimal allocation model was proposed.The software Vensim in system dynamics was adopted to display the demand and supply of the water resources and affecting factors related to water resources like economy,society,population,and environment as a graph.Variable sign and equation were taken to express the causal relation among different variables.Meanwhile,the surplus water recycled section was added in the model.The recycling ratio and its delay parameters of the surplus water were set for studying their influence on the allocation results of the regional water resources.Finally,this model was applied in reality and compared with water resource allocation case based on multi objective genetic algorithm.【Result】The water resources optimal allocation model based on the closed-loop feedback in system dynamics fully showed the regional supplying,demanding, expanding and recycling water and their complex causal relation with the regional economy,society,population and environment.The target model was testified via changing the recycling rate and its delay parameter of water,and the results showed that the surplus water recycling mechanism was rational,and the recycle of the complete surplus water could increase the entire regional water supply significantly. Compared with the allocation result of another allocation case,it was testified that the water resources optimal allocation model based on closed-loop feedback in system dynamics decreased the water shortage of the studying region in 2015,2020,and 2030 by 17.19 million m3,13.88 million m3 and 23.07 million m3,respectively. 【Conclusion】The water resources optimal allocation model based on close-loop feedback in system dynamics is reas

关 键 词：水资源配置 水资源供需系统 系统动力学 闭环反馈 VENSIM 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]