城市饮用水源水质变化趋势及突变研究——以昆明市松华坝水库为例  

Research on Water Quality Trend and Mutation in Urban Drinking Water Source: Taking Songhuaba Reservoir for Example

作　　者：段顺琼 王静[2] 彭云[3] 罗绍芹 付朝书[2] 李靖[3] 

机构地区：[1]昆明市松华坝水库管理处,昆明650201 [2]云南农业大学水利水电与建筑学院,昆明650201 [3]云南农业大学建筑工程学院,昆明650201 [4]云南今禹生态工程咨询有限公司,昆明650224

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2013年第11期143-146,150,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家"973"基金项目(2006CB100206);国家"十二五"科技支撑项目(2012BAD40B02)

摘　　要：根据昆明市主要水源区松华坝水库1996-2010年的水质监测数据,应用分形理论及R/S模型对水源区总氮、总磷、氨氮、高锰酸盐指数的平均值以及其不同水期指标值的变化趋势进行了分析,重点对总氮突变点进行了检验,研究结果表明:总氮、总磷、氨氮、高锰酸盐指数的年平均值以及其不同水期的指标存在明显Hurst现象,除总磷表现为持续下降趋势效应外,其余3个指标均表现为持续上升趋势效应,在枯水期3个指标变化趋势的持续性强度明显大于全年、丰水期和平水期,总氮年平均值的变异点出现在2008年,2008年后总氮增加的趋势性成分相对较低。Based on the investigation data of the main water source of the Songhuaba reservoir in Kunming from 1996 to 2010, the fractal theory and the R/S model were used to analyze and forecast the change trend of the annual mean amount and parameter values in different water periods of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen and permanganate index, this paper mainly analyzes the catastrophe point of total nitrogen. The results show that Hurst phenomenon of total nitrogen,ammonia nitrogen,permanganate index Of annual average and its indexes in different water periods were obvious, except for total phosphorous declined continuously, other three indexes increased continuously, the persistent strength of change trend of three indexes in dry seasons are more than year -round, wet season and normal water season, catastrophe point of average total nitrogen existed in 2008. The increasing trend of total nitrogen was relatively low after 2008.

关 键 词：城市水源区 水质指标 趋势 R S分析 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]