航天器发射组织可靠性模型  

An Organizational Reliability Model of Spacecraft Launch

作　　者：董学军[1,2] 黎明[1] 陈英武[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,湖南长沙410073 [2]酒泉卫星发射中心,甘肃酒泉732750

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2013年第4期75-83,共9页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71071156;70971131)

摘　　要：定量评估某一具体活动的组织可靠性是航天器发射工程的一个难题。本文分析了航天器发射组织可靠性的因素空间和特性,定义了补偿和不可替代因素,创建了补偿和不可替代因素状态合成方法,构建了航天器发射组织可靠度模型。本文还使用灰关联分析技术,分析了影响组织可靠性的重要因素组织成熟度,构造了评价组织成熟度的模型。最后,通过一个实例分析,演示了航天器发射组织可靠性评估模型的应用,说明了使用补偿和不可替代因素状态合成方法评估航天器发射组织可靠性的可行性和有效性。模型在"天宫一号"和"神舟八号"发射工程中得到初步应用,效果较好。The quantitative assessment of organizational reliability for a concrete activity in the spacecraft launch engineering is a diffieuh question. A general view of current assessment methods of organizational reliability and organizational maturity shows that most of them are proposed to assess organizational reliability capability level and organizational maturity level at the organization level. Therefore, the results of the assessment data can＇t be integrated with the reliability of material systems, such as aerospace products and ground equipment. To solve the problem, this paper seeks to introduce a new method named as the composition method of states of compensatory and irreplaceable factors that can be used to quantitatively assess organizational reliability of concrete activity in spacecraft launch engineering. First of all, the factors space of organizational reliability of concrete activity in spacecraft launch engineering, including human reliability, organizational maturity, organizational available resource and external supervision, are analyzed. The compensatory and irreplaceable factors are defined. Moreover, the composition principles of states of compensatory and irreplaceable factors are presented. The composition method of states of compensatory and irreplaceable factors is established. The organizational reliability model of a concrete activity in spacecraft launch engineering is constructed. The effects of collaborative coefficients ~ and T on composition results of factor states are analyzed. Thirdly, the factors space of organizational maturity of important factors affecting organizational reliability are presented, including organizational structure, work plan, communication and coordination, quality control, command and decision-making, regulations and standards. The grey relational diversity information space of organizational maturity is defined, and a calculation method of grey relational coefficient p is given. Using the method of weighted average by grey relational coefficient p as w

关 键 词：航天器发射 组织可靠性 补偿和不可替代因素状态合成 灰关联分析 

分 类 号：V554[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]