利用“区间校正法”分析HIV阳性MSM在抗病毒治疗前CD4细胞计数的变化规律  

Analysis on variation in pre-HAART CD_4^+ T-cell count for HIV-positive MSM in China:An interval adjusted method

作　　者：罗思童[1,2] 李洋[3] 韩丽涛[4] 卢红艳[3] 徐杰[2] 斗智[2] 陶潜[4] 吴尊友[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京协和医学院公共卫生学院,北京100730 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心,北京102206 [3]北京市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防治所,北京100013 [4]中国人民大学信息学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2013年第11期780-783,共4页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

基　　金：国家“十二五”艾滋病和病毒性肝炎等重大传染病防治科技重大专项(项目编号:2012ZX10001-007);中国多学科艾滋病结核防治培训(项目编号:5U2RTW006918)~~

摘　　要：目的分析中国男男性行为人群(MSM)中,未接受高效抗反转录病毒治疗(HAART)的艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者CD+4T淋巴细胞(CD4细胞)计数的变化规律。方法通过"区间校正法",对北京市324名未接受HAART的HIV阳性MSM,在感染HIV后各年的平均CD4细胞计数进行估算;选择未治疗HIV阳性MSM人群CD4细胞计数变化服从的理论函数,拟合理论变化曲线,并估计该人群HIV潜伏期的平均时长。结果未接受HAART的HIV阳性MSM,其HIV潜伏期平均约为7年。其中,HIV潜伏前期(从急性感染期结束到CD4细胞计数降至350个/mm3)平均约为4.33年,该时期CD4细胞计数的年平均下降速率为35个/mm3;HIV潜伏后期(200个/mm3≤CD4细胞计数≤350个/mm3)平均约为2.66年,该时期CD4细胞计数的年平均下降速率为56个/mm3。结论中国MSM人群中未治疗的HIV感染者CD4细胞计数下降速率较快,不同感染阶段CD4细胞计数下降速率不同。Objective To analyze the variation in pre-HAART CD4＋ T-cell count for HIV-positive MSM in Chi- na. Method An interval adjusted method was used to estimate the average CD4 count of 324 HIV positive MSM be- fore HAART. A mathematical function was used to describe the decline in pre-HAART CD4 count, and estimate the average length of HIV incubation period. Results For HIV-positive MSM who had not received HAART, the average length of HIV incubation period was estimated to be 7 years. The average length of early period of HIV in- cubation （between the end of acute HIV infection and the time of CD4 count going down to 350 cells/mm3 ） was esti- mated to be 4.33 years, during which CD4 experienced an average decline of 35 cells/rams per year. The average length of late HIV incubation （200 cells/mm3 ≤CD4 count≤350 cells/mm3） was estimated to be 2.66 years, during which CD4 decreased at an average rate of 56 cells/mm3 per year. Conclusion HIV-positive MSM in China experi- enced a rapid CD4 decline before HAART, while the rate of CD4 decline is not the same in different stages of infection.

关 键 词：艾滋病病毒感染 男男性行为人群 CD4+T淋巴细胞 区间校正法 

分 类 号：R373.9[医药卫生—病原生物学]