1987—2011江苏省外贸出口结构与污染排放关系的实证研究  

The Empirical Research of the Relationship between Export Structure and Pollution Emission in Jiangsu Province in 1987—2011

作　　者：肖迅[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京晓庄学院行知学院,江苏南京211171

出　　处：《淮海工学院学报（人文社会科学版）》2013年第18期26-29,共4页Journal of Huaihai Institute of Technology(Humanities & Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：分别运用Johansen协整检验和Granger因果分析方法,对江苏省外贸出口结构和污染排放之间的相互关系进行了实证分析。研究表明:外贸出口和污染排放存在长期的协整关系;不同的外贸出口类型对不同污染物排放的影响不同。总体说,外贸出口对污染排放具有促进作用,出口结构的优化对污染排放具有改善作用,但不是所有的出口类型都对污染排放产生正向作用;外贸出口是污染排放的Granger原因,而污染排放不是外贸出口的Granger原因。因此,必须充分关注外贸出口结构变化对污染排放的影响,积极引导低污染产业的增强出口竞争力,优化出口商品结构。By adopting Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality analysis,the relationship between foreign trade export structure and pollution emission in Jiangsu province has been checked empirically.The results show that：foreign trade export and pollution emission has long-term co-integration relationship;different kinds of foreign trade on the influence of different pollutants are different;generally,foreign trade has a promoting effect on pollution emissions while export structure optimization can improve the effects of pollution and not all types of export of pollution emissions produce positive effect;foreign trade export is a Granger cause of pollution,and pollution is not the Granger cause of foreign trade export. Therefore,the paper proposes to fully focus on foreign trade structure change influence on emissions,ac-tively guide the low pollution industries to strengthen the export competitiveness,and optimize the struc-ture of export commodities.

关 键 词：江苏 外贸出口结构 污染排放 Johansen协整 GRANGER因果分析 

分 类 号：F752.853[经济管理—国际贸易]