电网故障时间间隔的统计分布及非线性特征分析  

Statistical Distribution and Nonlinear Characteristic Analysis of Fault Time Intervals in Power Grids

作　　者：徐立新[1] 杨建梅[2] 潮铸[3] 刘明波[4] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广东省广州市510640 [2]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东省广州市510640 [3]广东电网公司电力调度控制中心,广东省广州市510600 [4]华南理工大学电力学院,广东省广州市510640

出　　处：《电网技术》2013年第12期3482-3488,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71273093)~~

摘　　要：为了研究电网故障的内在动力学机理,以广东电网为例研究了电网故障时间间隔序列的统计分布及非线性特征。首先检验和分析了2000年8月—2013年4月电网故障的统计分布特性,结果表明电网发生故障的时间间隔具有阵发和厚尾现象,近似满足幂律分布。然后应用R/S(rescaled range analysis)和SWV(scaled windowed variance)2种Hurst指数分析方法,求得广东电网故障时间间隔序列的Hurst指数,分别为0.867 01和0.974 14,两者均显著地接近1,结论具有一致性。这揭示了电网发生故障的时间间隔不仅是非随机的,而且具有强的长程正相关性和自相似性。研究故障的时间间隔特征可以为电网进行风险预测和风险评估提供决策依据。Electric power grid is an artificial complex system for transmitting and interchanging energy, where the blackouts are usually caused by various small faults. To study the internal dynamics mechanism of power grid faults, taking Guangdong power grid as example the statistical distribution and nonlinear characteristic analysis of fault time intervals of power grid is researched. Firstly, the statistical distribution characteristics of power grid faults occurred from Aug. 2000 to Apr. 2013 are verified and analyzed, and analysis results show that the fault time intervals possess the features of intermittency and heavy-tail, and approximately distribute according to power-law distribution. Utilizing two Hurst exponent analysis methods, namely the rescaled range analysis （R/S） method and the scaled windowed variance （SWV） method, the Hurst exponents of fault time intervals of Guangndong power grid are solved, they are 0.867 01 and 0.97414 respectively and evidently close to 1, so they are of consistency. It reveals that the Pault time intervals of power grid are not only non-random, but also possess strong positive correlation and self-similarity. The research on fault time intervals can provide decision foundation for risk prediction and risk assessment of power grid.

关 键 词：电力系统 时间间隔 幂律分布 HURST指数 R S 方法 SWV方法 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]