基于well-being分析的电网设备重要度评估与排序方法  

An Assessment and Ranking Method for Component Importance Based on Well-Being Analysis

作　　者：邓彬[1] 郭创新[1] 王越[1] 黄太贵[2] 汤伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]安徽电力调度通信中心,安徽省合肥市230061

出　　处：《电网技术》2013年第12期3489-3496,共8页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究计划(2013CB228206);国家自然科学基金项目(51177143);浙江省自然科学基金(LZ12E07002)~~

摘　　要：设备重要度评估是电网风险评估与管控的重要内容,现有的方法无法考虑天气条件等不确定因素的影响,同时存在评价角度单一、实用性不强的问题。为此,提出一种电网设备重要度评估与排序的新方法。在well-being风险分析的框架下结合风险追踪模型和三状态天气模型,研究了单个设备对系统运行风险贡献程度的量化方法。在推导系统well-being风险指标分配模型的基础上,定义了设备紧急重要度指标(emergency importance indicator,EII)和警戒重要度指标(alert importance indicator,AII),分别从不同角度表征设备的重要程度。通过状态枚举法选取具有代表性的预想故障集,逐次将预想故障的运行风险分配给各个设备,最终完成考虑天气状态下的设备重要度评估与排序。RBTS系统和IEEE-RTS系统的仿真结果验证了所提方法的科学性和可靠性。Component importance assessment is the important content of the power grid risk assessment and control, the existing methods cannot take the influence of weather condition and other uncertainties into account, meanwhile have problems such as single point of evaluation and low practicality. For this reason, a new assessment and ranking method for component importatlce is proposed. Firstly, incorporating the risk tracing model and three-state weather model, the method to quantize the contribution of each component to the system operation risk is studied under the framework of well-being risk analysis. On the basis of deriving allocation model of well-being risk index, emergency importance indicator （EII） and alert importance indicator （AII） are defined to indicate the importance of component from different aspects, respectively. Through the state enumeration method, typical expected contingencies sets are selected, and the operation risk of expected contingency are allocated to the individual component successively, then the assessment and ranking for component importance considering weather condition are completed. Case studies on RBTS and IEEE-RTS verify the scientificity and reliability of the proposed method.

关 键 词：well—being风险模型 风险追踪 紧急重要度指标 警戒重要度指标 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]