时变概率模型下的电网调度操作过程风险评估  

Real-Time Probabilistic Model Based Risk Assessment of Dispatching Operations Process

作　　者：魏炜[1] 王恩[1] 刘哲[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学电气与自动化工程学院,天津市南开区300072

出　　处：《电网技术》2013年第12期3509-3514,共6页Power System Technology

摘　　要：调度操作是电力企业日常工作之一,合理的调度操作能够有效地保证电网安全、稳定运行。但由于天气、设备老化等不确定因素,调度操作常面临一定的风险。因此在下达调度指令之前,有必要对调度操作过程中的电网状态进行实时风险分析,确保操作后的系统风险处于可控范围之内。将风险理论引入对调度操作的过程评估,在考虑社会、天气以及设备状态影响的基础上,提出了调度操作过程风险计算框架与方法,其中对于风险后果采用最优成本控制方法进行量化计算。最后利用IEEE-RTS测试系统验证所提方法的有效性。As for electric power enterprises, dispatching operation is one of daily works, and reasonable dispatching operation can ensure secure and stable operation of power grid effectively. However, due to such uncertain factors as weather and equipment ageing, the dispatching operation has to be faced with a certain risk. So before transmitting scheduling instructions to lower levels, it is necessary to perform real-time risk analysis on grid situation during dispatching operation process to ensure that the post-operation risk of power grid lies within the controllable range. Leading the risk theory into the assessment on dispatching operation process and on the basis of considering such impacts of society, weather and equipment status, a frame and method to calculate the risk during dispatching operation process, in which the quantification and calculation of risk effect are performed by optimal cost control method, is proposed. Finally, the validity of the proposed method is verified by IEEE-RTS.

关 键 词：风险评估 调度操作 最优潮流 时变概率模型 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]