舞毒蛾在上海市的适生性分析  

Adaptability Analysis of Gypsy Moth in Shanghai

作　　者：朱宇[1] 李成德[1] 豆晓洁[1] 冯琛 张岳峰 吴广超 王焱 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,哈尔滨150040 [2]上海市林业总站,上海200072

出　　处：《林业科学》2013年第11期109-115,共7页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：上海市科委择优委托项目(09DZ1908800)

摘　　要：根据我国21个县市11个舞毒蛾发生区、10个未发生区近10年的气象因子数据,以气候数据的关键因子绘制21县(市)的气候特征图,结合舞毒蛾寄主植物在上海的分布,分析舞毒蛾在上海市的适生性;进一步利用判别分析法建立舞毒蛾在我国的分布预测模型,模型的预测正确率为100%。结果表明,根据气候特征图、舞毒蛾的寄主植物以及预测模型的判定,上海市具备舞毒蛾发生和危害的气候条件。Based on the meteorological data of recent 10 years in 21 cities/counties in China, which cover 11 epidemic area and 10 non-epidemic area of Gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, a climate characteristic pattern of the 21 cities/counties was drawn based on the key meteorological factors. Combined with distribution of the host plants in Shanghai City, the adaptability of Gypsy moth was analyzed. Furthermore, a distribution prediction model of Gypsy moth in China was established using the discriminant analysis techniques. The prediction accuracy of the model was 100%. The prediction model displays that Shanghai City possesses the climatic condition for outbreak of Gypsy moth according to the climate characteristic pattern, and host plant analysis.

关 键 词：舞毒蛾 分布 预测模型 适生性 上海 

分 类 号：S718.7[农业科学—林学]