中国CPI权重调整问题探析  

Analysis of the Adjustment of CPI Weight of China

作　　者：任栋[1] 王琦[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学统计学院 [2]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2013年第12期51-64,共14页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"统计指数理论的创新研究"(11BTJ010);中央高校基本科研业务费(JBK120405);四川省人文科学重点研究基地的资助

摘　　要：近年来,CPI权重调整问题备受各方关注。一方面,CPI的权重调整会影响对CPI的测度;另一方面,中国CPI调整的详细信息远非充分透明,不利于对CPI及相关经济变量的深度研究。鉴于此,本文从统计学和经济学两个角度阐述了CPI指数高层加总的原理和意义,并借助Divisia指数方法对CPI进行解构,找出了消费支出构成比与大类商品权重的契合点,剥离出消费支出构成变动的实时性与权重调整的滞后性这对矛盾导致的技术错位因素,对解构出来的因素进行再分析,为CPI权重调整工作提出了有针对性的建议。CPI weight adjustment is very important. On the one hand, adjus- ting the weights of CPI will affect the measurement of CPI~ on the other hand, the detailed information of China CPI adjust which is absure, is not conducive to the deep research on CPI and related economic variables. In view of this, this paper ex- pounds the principle and significance of CPI index level from two angles of statistics and economics, and deconstructs CPI by Divisia Methods, finding out that the con- sumption expenditure structure and the weight of the eight categories are not al- ways consistency. After that, we strip out and analyze the dislocation factors which are resulted from the frequent change of consumption expenditure structure and the lag of weight adjustment. So in the end, we put forwed some constructive proposals of CPI weight adjustment.

关 键 词：CPI 权重调整 消费支出结构 DIVISIA指数 

分 类 号：C813[社会学—统计学]