中国经济增长中的公共资本外溢——来自水利基础设施价值的疑问与实证  

Public Capital Spillovers in China's Economic Growth

作　　者：方文全[1] 张勋[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院 [2]北京大学国家发展研究院中国经济研究中心

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2013年第12期126-139,共14页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：通过估算中国1952-2010年水利基础设施的物质资本存量，基于政府生产性支出的内生增长框架估计水利资本的产出效率，证实公共资本具有显著的外溢效应。在此基础上，着重揭示基于历史数据的中国经济增长研究中存在的问题，不仅水利等基础设施公共资本存量存在明显的测量误差，而且资本总存量、劳动投入等生产要素的基础数据，也存在严重的准确性问题，从而影响了对长期经济增长的准确判断。This paper measures the physical capital stock of China＇s water con- servancy infrastructure for 1952-2010. We measure the factor contribution of wa- ter conservancy capital on economic output and spillover effect on TFP in the framework of endogenous growth based on public productive expenditure. The re- sult shows China＇s water conservancy capital is much higher than those that other researches have estimated, and the contribution to output along with spillover effect on technological progress is more efficient beyond imagination. That suggests China＇s public capital might be much seriously underestimated, and the water conservan- cy infrastructure might be treated as an efficient instrument for the institmion.

关 键 词：公共资本 水利基础设施 外溢效应 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]