基于气候模式的动力-统计降尺度技术在云南降水预测中的应用  

An application of a dynamical-statistical downscaling method based on climate model to precipitation forecast over Yunnan

作　　者：黄玮[1,2] 程建刚[3,2] 王学锋[1,2] 周建琴[1,2] 晏红明[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气候中心,云南昆明650034 [2]云南省季风与气象灾害研究开放实验室,云南昆明650034 [3]云南省气象局,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第6期782-790,共9页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：云南省社会发展科技计划(2009CA023);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201335);云南省科技计划项目(2011FB128)

摘　　要：基于T63动力延伸气候模式高度预测场、NCEP/NCAR再分析500 hPa高度场和云南124个测站降水资料,利用降尺度技术建立降水预测模型,对云南春、夏两季(3—8月)降水进行了预测试验.模型重建的3—8月降水与实况降水的距平符号一致率平均值都在60%以上,与实况降水的距平相关系数通过α=0.05信度检验的年数比例都在65%以上.对2005—2007年3—8月云南124站降水进行的预报试验表明,模型预测基本能反映出这些年3—8月逐候降水的时空分布特征及其演变趋势.建立的降尺度模型从动力与统计相结合的角度,给出了大气环流与局地降水之间的关系,有明确的动力学背景和天气学意义.Based on 500 hPa geopotential height field from T63 dynamical extended range forecast products, the observed precipitation data of Yunnan, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data（500 hPa）, the March-August pre cipitation forecast skills in Yunnan have been studied by using the downscaling method. The precipitation anoma ly average ratio between the reconstruction and the observation in March-August are all over 60 %. The propor tion of years that the correlation coefficients between the reconstruction and the observation through of = 0.05 reli- ability testing are all over 65 %. In the light of this approach, the precipitation in March--August of ~unnan from 2005 to 2007 was prospected. The results show that downscaling method predictions can reflect the March-Au gust pentad precipitation spatial and temporal distribution and its evolution trend. The relationship between gener al circulation and regional rainfall has been explored from the perspective of statistical - dynamical downscaling. The approach is of obviously dynamical background and weather study simaificance.

关 键 词：降尺度 动力 统计 预测 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]