中国通货膨胀容忍度合意值的测算:基于福利成本的研究  

A Calculation of Acceptable Range of China's Inflation Tolerance : Analysis Based on Welfare Costs

作　　者：彭恒文[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行南京分行,江苏南京210004

出　　处：《南方金融》2013年第10期26-30,共5页South China Finance

摘　　要：为有效引导通货膨胀预期,有必要提高政策透明度,设置合理的通货膨胀容忍度,给出明确的政策信号。然而,评判政策有效性的标准在于是否能够增进社会福利,如果政策不能增进参与主体的福利,人们很难判定政策是否有效。基于这样的考虑,本文构建了货币需求函数,通过"福利三角"测算了通货膨胀福利成本,得出了福利成本与物价水平的计量方程,并给出了通货膨胀容忍度合意值。实证分析结果表明,货币需求函数采取双对数形式更为适合中国的实际情况,福利成本和通货膨胀走势基本一致,采取措施控制通货膨胀有助于提高居民福利水平,目前物价波动的适度区间是[98.1889,104.9241],通货膨胀容忍度合意值为104.9241。To guide inflation expectations efthctively, something must be done to improve policy transparency, set a reasonable target of inflation tolerance, and give clear policy implications. The standard of effectiveness depends on welfare costs, and we can not say policies are effective without promoting the welfare. Based on this consideration, this paper constructs monetary demand function, estimates the welfare costs of inflation with the help of ＂welfare triangle＂ obtains the measurement equation of relationship between welfare costs and prices, and gives the acceptable range of inflation tolerance. The results show that, the monetary demand function should take double logarithmic form, trends of welfare costs and inflation are almost the same, it is good for welfare to control inflation, and the interval of moderate price fluctuations and acceptable range of inflation tolerance arc [98.1889,104.9241 ] and 104.9241 respectively.

关 键 词：通货膨胀容忍度 合意值 福利成本 最优货币数量法则 货币需求函数 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F822.5