人民币兑新台币的均衡汇率及失调程度研究——基于行为均衡汇率模型的分析  

The Research on the Equilibrium Exchange Rate and the Disorder Degree of RMB against NTD :Based on the Analysis of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model

作　　者：潘再见[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行福州中心支行,福建福州350003

出　　处：《南方金融》2013年第10期66-71,共6页South China Finance

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目<中国经济动态效率检验与扩大居民消费需求研究>(项目编号:11YJC79063)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文选择劳动生产率、贸易条件、经济开放度、政府支出、货币供应量等经济基本变量构建了人民币兑新台币的行为均衡汇率模型,并基于海峡两岸1994-2012年的数据,测算了人民币兑新台币的均衡汇率和失调程度。实证研究表明:人民币兑新台币的汇率长期处于非均衡状态,但失调程度并不严重;人民币兑新台币的长期均衡汇率呈现上升趋势,表明大陆的综合竞争力相对于台湾地区不断上升。因此,人民币与新台币的汇兑价格必须考虑海峡两岸的经济基本面,并建立有效的汇率合作机制。This paper picks labor productivity, trade terms, economic openness, government spending, money supply and other basis economic variables to build the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model of the RMB against the NTD （ New Taiwan Dollar ） . Besides, based on the data from 1994-2012, this article estimates the equilibrium exchange rate of the RMB against the New Taiwan Dollar, and its disorder degree. The empirical study result shows that the exchange rate of RMB against New Taiwan Dollar was in a non-equilibrium status for a long time, however, the degree of disorder was not so bad. The longterm equilibrium exchange rate of RMB against NTD is upward trendy, indicating that compared to Taiwan , the China's Mainland＇s overall competitiveness is rising. Therefore, the exchange rate of RMB against NTD hould consider the economic fundamentals across the Taiwan Strait and also set up the cooperation regime of exchange rate.

关 键 词：人民币 新台币 均衡汇率 汇率失调程度 行为均衡汇率模型 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]