中国台风灾害综合风险评估与区划  

Integrated Risk Assessment and Zoning of Typhoon Disasters in China

作　　者：殷洁[1,2] 戴尔阜[1] 吴绍洪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]农业部规划设计研究院,北京100125

出　　处：《地理科学》2013年第11期1370-1376,共7页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2008BAH31B01;2009BAC61B05);国家自然科学基金项目(40830741)资助

摘　　要：中国是受台风影响较多的国家之一,中东部地区人口、经济密集,台风频繁登陆对农业、人口、房屋与经济构成重大威胁。从台风灾害成灾机理出发,在采用历史灾情数据构建台风灾害损失标准的基础上,对承灾体脆弱性进行评估,综合分析台风在每一个县域单元内的发生可能性,基于承灾体脆弱性和台风发生可能性评估结果,应用风险评估模型,对不同强度等级台风造成的风险进行定量评估。通过对同一强度等级不同承灾体的风险、不同强度等级台风风险进行综合,实现台风灾害风险分区,划分为3类(高、中、低风险)9个大区,并提出防灾减灾策略与建议。Under the background of global climate change, extreme events occur frequently which can cause in- tensified natural disaster risk. China characterized with high population density and intensive economy in east-central areas, as one of the countries influenced frequently by typhoon events, the agriculture, population, buildings and economy are threatened significantly by typhoon disasters. The quantitative risk assessment on disaster-bearing bodies and regionally integrated zoning are not just a theory study in risk management, also can offer practical guidance on mitigation and prevention in typhoon disaster. In our study, on the basis of the typhoon disaster mechanism, the vulnerabilities of disaster-bearing bodies were evaluated according to ty- phoon disaster loss criteria established by applying historical typhoon loss data. In addition, the probabilities of typhoons in each country region were analyzed comprehensively using the indices of landing frequencies and track line lengths. Then applying risk assessment model, the typhoon risks caused by the different intensities were evaluated quantitatively. Synthesized on the risks of the same or the different intensity typhoons for disas- ter-bearing bodies, the typhoon disaster risk zone for China was divided into nine areas and belonged to three classes （respectively is high, medium and low risk）. The high risk areas are located in southern part of Guangxi Province, most of Guangdong Province, coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang Province, Yangtz River Delta ar- ea, most of Jiangsu Province, some inland counties of Jiangxi and Anhui Province. Based on the above results, the helpful suggestions on prevention and reduction in regional typhoon disaster were put forward.

关 键 词：台风灾害 风险评估 综合 区划 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学]