中国经济全要素生产率的变迁:1978—2010年实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis on the Migration of Total Factor Productivity of Chinese Economy from the Year 1978—2010

作　　者：邹心勇[1] 赵丽芬[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2013年第11期51-55,共5页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71073036)

摘　　要：合理评价中国经济增长情况对于促进我国经济持续健康发展至关重要。本文采用基于DEA的Malmquist生产率指数对1978—2010年中国经济全要素生产率进行了评价,发现32年中国经济全要素生产率年度平均增长率为1.49%,其增长主要来自制度变迁,这一结果与我们观测到的实际情况及众多文献均较为相吻合;值得注意的是,本文发现2006—2010年全要素生产率出现了明显的下降,导致这个结果的原因可能是由地产拉动的传统的以资源投入为主经济增长的模式在2006—2007年达到阶段性高峰,而随后为应付金融危机而推出的刺激政策使其达到近年来的顶峰。It is very crucial for sustainable development of Chinese economy to reasonably evaluate its growth. So, the method of Malmquist productivity index based on DEA is used in this article. The results discover that, during the year 1978 -2010, the average annual growth ratio of Total Factor Productivity （TFP） of Chinese industry is 1.49% , which is totally contributed by technology efficiency; and this result can explain the actual phenomenon of economy, which is also similar with other documents. Especilly, in the past five years, we find that the TFP of Chinese economy had decreased seriously, which can be explained by the traditional model of resource input driven by real estate industry ; more seriously by the subsequent stimulation policies for financial crisis.

关 键 词：中国经济 全要素生产率 技术效率 技术进步 变迁 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]