华南与华东某些地震区地震趋势分析  

Analysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China and south China

作　　者：秦四清[1] 李国梁[1] 薛雷[1] 泮晓华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所中国科学院工程地质力学重点实验室,北京100029

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2013年第5期2392-2406,共15页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委重点项目(41030750)资助

摘　　要：运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,分析了华东、华南地区某些地震区未来的地震趋势,并给出了这些地震区未来中强震、强震或大(巨)震的四要素预测结果.结果表明:南澳-泉州地震区未来有大震或巨震发生;海口地震区未来有强震或大震发生;安徽霍山地震区、九江-安庆地震区、南宁-普安地震区、河源-安远-瑞金-永安地震区未来都将有中强震或强震发生;而百色地震区未来震情基于目前的数据还不能作出明确判断.本文得出的结论可供有关部门参考,以制定相应的防震减灾措施.在分析地震区震情发展趋势时,还讨论了个别地震区存在的某些争议问题.According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us, the earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China and south China regions is analyzed in the present paper. Meanwhile, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the moderate-strong, strong earthquake or major（great） earthquake, are also presented. The results suggest that a major or great earthquake will occur in Nan＇ao-Quanzhou seismic zone and a strong earthquake or major earthquake will happen in Haikou seismic zone. In addition, moderate-strong or strong earthquakes will occur in Anhui-Huoshan, Jiujiang-Anqing, Nanning-Puan and Heyuan-Anyuan-Ruijin-Yongan seismic zones. The department concerned should consider the conclusions obtained in this paper for taking precautions against earthquakes. Due to insufficient earthquake data of Baise seismic zone, a definite conclusion can＇t be drawn. Furthermore, some controversial issues such as the magnitude of historical strong earthquake in the Nan＇ao- Quanzhou seismic zone are also discussed.

关 键 词：华东地区 华南地区 地震区 锁固段 预测方法 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]