Re-estimation of China's Degree of Trade Dependence and External Imbalance: Value-added Statistics in the Global Production Chain  

作　　者：Li Xin Xu Dianqing 

机构地区：[1]Beijing Normal University [2]University of Western Ontario

出　　处：《Social Sciences in China》2013年第4期58-84,共27页中国社会科学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.70810107020);National Social Science Fund of China(Grant No.11CJL038)

摘　　要：The distortion of GDP and foreign trade data has exaggerated China＇s foreign trade dependence degree and external imbalance degree. The distortion of GDP is mainly caused by the difference between the exchange rate method and purchasing power parity （PPP） estimation. The distortion of trade data includes double counting of customs statistics as well as the discrepancy between the international trade flows of goods and of capital caused by the ownership issue. The re-estimation of China＇s trade dependence degree and external imbalance degree reveals that according to official statistics, in 2007 the dependence degree of China＇s foreign trade decreased to 31.59 percent from 68.02 percent and its imbalance degree decreased to 2.11 percent from 10.13 percent. Therefore, it is utterly groundless to accuse China of ＂manipulating the exchange rate.＂GDP与外贸数据的扭曲夸大了中国外贸依存度及外贸失衡度。GDP的扭曲主要来自汇率法与购买力平价法估算的差异;贸易数据扭曲包括:关境统计的重复计算以及由产权问题导致的国际贸易物流与资金流的不一致。对2007年我国实际外贸依存度及其失衡度的重估显示:2007年中国的外贸依存度从官方统计的68.02%下调为31.59%,外贸失衡度也从官方统计的10.13%下调为2.11%。所谓"中国操纵汇率"的指责是毫无根据的。

关 键 词：foreign trade dependence degree external imbalance degree processing trade foreign-funded ownership 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]