基于Lotka-Volterra模型的上海低碳化产业结构调整系统仿真研究  

System Simulation Study on Shanghai's Low-carbon Industrial Structure Adjustment Based on the Lotka-Volterra Model

作　　者：高广阔[1] 孙一鸣[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《上海理工大学学报》2013年第5期457-462,共6页Journal of University of Shanghai For Science and Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(10BJY005);上海市教委科研创新资助项目(14ZS118)

摘　　要：从上海三次产业的产值及其碳排放量出发,利用Lotka-Volterra模型对上海二三产业调整进行模拟分析.运用系统动力学的理论和方法,研究上海产业低碳化及其发展运行的内在动力机制,并据此对上海经济的低碳发展路径进行预测与展望,提出政策建议.研究表明:低碳产业替代高碳产业是上海经济发展的必然趋势,同时也应促进产业整体的和谐发展、低碳发展.Simulation analysis on the adjustment of secondary and tertiary industries in Shanghai was carried out based on Lotka-Volterra model, according to the output values and carbon emissions of the three sequencies of industries. Industrial low-carbonization and the inherent dynamic mechanism of its development were studied with the help of theories and methods of system dynamics. The forecast and outlook of the low-carbon development path were discussed and policy proposals were presented. The results show that the alternation of high-carbon industry is the inevitable trend of economic development, amd the harmonious and low-carbon development of industry should be promoted.

关 键 词：低碳化 产业结构调整 LOTKA-VOLTERRA模型 系统动力学 仿真 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]