央行干预使得人民币汇率更加均衡了吗?  

Has Central Bank Intervention Driven RMB Exchange Rate More Equilibrium

作　　者：陈华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行上海总部国际部,邮政编码200120

出　　处：《经济研究》2013年第12期81-92,共12页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：央行对外汇市场的干预备受争议。一方面,央行干预可能有助于打击外汇市场中非理性的噪音交易,从而降低汇率的失衡程度。但是,另一方面,央行干预却存在着汇率操纵之嫌,即人为地低估本国汇率,以获取本国出口产品的竞争优势。自2005年汇改以来,中国人民银行对外汇市场的干预推动了人民币汇率更加均衡?抑或相反?对此,本文基于人民币汇率形成机制市场化的背景,研究交易者异质性假定下央行干预对汇率失调的影响,发现央行干预对汇率失调存在U型效应。进而,本文构建相应的实证框架。研究结果表明,在汇改后的大部分时期里,央行干预有效促进了人民币汇率均衡。Central bank intervention is controversial. On one hand, central bank intervention striking at the irrational noise trade could help exchange rate approach its equilibrium level, on the other hand, central bank intervention may be doubted as currency manipulation, which aims at attaining the competition advantage of the exported commodities by means of currency underestimation on purpose. It＇s pretty interesting that, has the central bank intervention conducted by People Bank of China driven RMB exchange rate more equilibrium ever since the RMB exchange rate formation reform in 2005, or not？ Based on the fact the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate is more and more market-oriented, this paper theoretically studies the effect of central bank intervention on the RMB＇s misalignment under the assumption of trader heterogeneity, which is found characterized as U shape, and then build up the corresponding empirical framework. It＇s lastly showed that central bank intervention is contributable effectively to RMB exchange rate＇s approaching its equilibrium level during the most period from 2005 year.

关 键 词：央行干预 人民币均衡汇率 阀值效应 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]