上市公司现金分红能力分析——基于上证红利50指数成份股的数据  

The Cash Dividends Payment Capacity of Listed Companies: Based on the Analysis of SSE Dividend 50 Index Companies

作　　者：谢德仁[1] 林乐[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《证券市场导报》2013年第12期43-48,55,共7页Securities Market Herald

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目批准号为71172010);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(项目批准号20100002110060)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：公司的可持续分红能力取决于同时拥有正值的留存收益和充足的源自自由现金流(FCF)的自由现金,没有后者的分红属于庞氏分红。本文利用上证红利50指数成份股公司的数据研究表明,即使是上交所眼中分红表现优秀的上市公司,其真实分红能力也是很差的:FCF和逐年累计FCF过半数为负,有85.25%的年度分红属于庞氏分红,且这些公司都曾发生过庞氏分红。本文的发现部分解释了我国上市公司长期不分红或少分红的原因,也意味着利益相关方应关注如何改善上市公司自由现金流的创造能力以切实提升其可持续分红能力。Companies with sustainable cash dividends payment capacity depend on their positive retained earnings and adequate free cash arising fi＇om tree cash flow （FCF）. The payment without FCF belongs to Ponzi Scheme （hereafter, Ponzi dividends payment）. Using the data of SSE Dividend 50 Index companies, we find that even those with excellent cash dividends payment performances identified by SSE, their true cash dividends payment capacity are poor. More than half of these companies＇ FCF and cumulative FCF are negative, and 85.25% annual dividends payments belong to Ponzi Scheme, and all of these companies paid Ponzi dividends at least once. Our findings explain the causes of China＇s listed companies＇ long-term low dividends phenomena, and suggest that the regulators should tbcus on listed companies＇ FCF generating ability, and take effective measures to help them achieve good FCF objectives.

关 键 词：分红能力 自由现金流 庞氏分红 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]