鄱阳湖生态经济区县域可持续发展能力评价与相关性分析  

The Evaluation on Sustainable Development Capability and Correlation Analysis in the Region of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone

作　　者：殷乾亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学旅游与城市管理学院,南昌330032

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2013年第19期4816-4822,共7页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40961041);教育部人文社科基金项目(08JC790048);江西省(青年)自然科学基金项目(GJJ09559)

摘　　要：以鄱阳湖生态经济区内星子县为例,利用生态足迹法对星子县1996-2008年的可持续发展程度进行了测度。选取5个社会经济发展指标进行了相关性分析,以揭示人类活动对可持续性指数的驱动因素。结果表明:①星子县1996-2008年人均生态足迹呈缓慢波动增加趋势,人均生态承载力小于生态足迹增长的幅度;②星子县的可持续发展能力的递增和万元GDP生态赤字的递减,说明区域的消费能力逐渐提高,经济发展能力日趋活跃;③可持续发展能力与总人口数、GDP、第三产业比重和城镇化水平呈显著正相关,可持续发展能力与第一产业比重呈显著负相关;④星子县可持续发展能力持续上升,2008年最大,为0.401,是研究期间内最低值的3.52倍。To take Xingzi county in the Poyang lake ecological economic zone for example,this paper estimated the sustainable development degree of Xingzi county from 1996 to 2008 by use of the ecological footprint model.5 social and economic indexes were selected to carT out the correlation analysis in order to reveal the driving factors about human activities to the sustainable index.The results showed：（1） the per capita ecological footprint of Xingzi county from 1996 to 2008 assumed an increasing trend with slow fluctuation,per capita ecological carrying capacity was slower than the growth of the ecological footprint per capita; （2）the increasing of sustainable development ability and the decrease of ten thousand Yuan GDP ecological deficit in Xingzi county declared that the regional consumption power gradually enhanced and the economic development ability was becoming increasingly active; （3） the sustainable development ability,the total population,GDP,the tertiary industry proportion and the urbanization level assumed remarkably positive correlation while the sustainable development ability and the primary industry proportion took on remarkably negative correlation; （4） the sustainable development ability of Xingzi county capacity continued to rise,and reached highest in 2008 at 0.401,nearly 3.52 times greater than the minimum value in the study period.

关 键 词：生态足迹 可持续发展 生态赤字 GDP生态足迹 星子县 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]