动力-统计客观定量化汛期降水预测研究新进展  

Recent Progress on the Objective and Quantifiable Forecast of Summer Precipitation Based on Dynamical-statistical Method

作　　者：封国林[1] 赵俊虎[1] 支蓉[1] 龚志强[1] 郑志海[1] 杨杰[1] 熊开国[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2013年第6期656-665,共10页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40930952;41105055);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB955902;2013CB430204);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106016)

摘　　要：汛期降水预测是短期气候预测的重要内容之一,也是难点之一。近20年来,动力-统计相结合的预测方法在解决这一复杂的科学难题方面取得了一定进展。该文系统地介绍了近年来国家级气候预测业务中关于动力-统计客观定量化预测的原理、最优因子订正和异常因子订正两类预测方案,及动力-统计集成的中国季节降水预测系统(FODAS1.0)。2009—2012年的汛期降水预测中,动力-统计客观定量化预测方法 4年平均PS评分为73,距平相关系数为0.16,体现了较高的预报技巧。但该方法仍存在不足,需通过加强气候因子与降水之间关系的诊断分析、完善短期气候模式的物理过程、改进参数化方案及研发有针对性的区域气候模式等手段,进一步提高模式本身的预报技巧,使动力-统计预测方法在汛期降水预测中发挥更大作用。Short-term climatic prediction, which mainly aims at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales, is ver- y important for the public and government decision making. The trend of summer flood and drought distri- bution is one of the most important contents in operational forecastl Generally, there are two types of forecasting methods, including statistical method and dynamical method, which both have advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, the general consensus is to let them learn from each other, merging and develo- ping. During recent 50 years, the Dynamical-Statistical Integration Forecasting Method （DSIFM） has made great progresses in dealing with the complex scientific issue of summer precipitation forecasting in China and abroad. The research results in early period and the development about DSIFM are briefly reviewed, as well as the two forms of dynamical-statistical integration forecasting method. And then, the principle, processes and programs of Dynamical-Statistical Objective Quantitative Forecasting （DSOQF） in recent operational forecast are systematically introduced. Based on the Coupled Global Circulation Model （CGCM） of Nation- al Climate Center and two types of prediction scheme of DSOQF, a dynamical-statistical integrated forecas- ting system for seasonal precipitation （FODAS1.0） is set up, which fully assimilates existing research and profession achievements, especially forecaster diagnostic techniques and forecasting experience from na- tional, regional and provincial climate centers. Suitable regional climate characteristics prediction scheme is also developed based on the theory and methods of DSOQF. By now, FODAS1.0 achieves quasi-operation- al trial in National Climate Center, 8 regional climate centers and Guangxi, Shandong and other provincial climate centers. Experimental predictions are carried out for the summer rainfall in China from 2009 to 2012 with the method of DSOQF. The predictive score （PS） from 2009 to 2012 are 79, 72, 70 and 70, respectively. The anomaly c

关 键 词：汛期预测 动力-统计方法 历史资料 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]